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Archive for the ‘Politics’ Category

 

By The Lion

 

According to Nate Silver from 538.com, since 1976, the person in 1st or 2nd place in the primary polling from January to June of the year preceding the election has been the nominee from that party.  In fact, only once in the past 25 years, was the person who finished June at #1 in the polling data the year preceding the election NOT held on to be the winner.  That person was Rudy Giuliani.  It is interesting to note that the person who finished 2nd that year actually won it (John McCain).   

 

Long story short, by June, traditionally, the person who is leading the polls for the Republican Primary has an 86% chance of being the nominee based on these numbers.  And based on this data, there is a 100% chance that the nominee will come from the two highest polling individuals.  The only years excluded were years where the incumbent President had no challenger (so obviously the #1 candidate won the nomination, but we didn’t include that in the percentages).  Those years were 1984 (Reagan) and 2004 (Bush 2.0). 

 

Here is the polling data.  The person in yellow was the winner.  Anyone in blue chose not to run.  Based on this data, as of April 1st, Huckabee and Romney have a commanding lead heading toward June.  Since the GOP race is off to a slow start, we may want to actually sample the data in July to be sure.  These two are separated by just 1.5% in the polling data, which also makes it the closest race ever charted with no presumptive nominee. (more…)

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By Heals56

Chicagoans of all districts woke up confused Wednesday morning as they found all their cars missing. When informing police of the situation the citizens quickly found out that their vehicles were not stolen but towed on the orders of their new King and Dictator for life, Rahm Emanuel.

Emanuel consolidated absolute power in a flash after crushing his opponents on Tuesday’s mayoral election.

“We all know never to let a crisis go to waste but I am a visionary who knows also to never let a good ass-kicking election go to waste either!”, bellowed an elated Rahm Emanuel at his rally after his landslide victory. Immediately after this statement he let his supporters know that he has ordered every car in the city limits to be towed to the new mega-impound he has created in what used to be McCormick Place convention facility on South Lake Shore. “As my first act as Supreme Mayor, I will solve the city’s parking ticket problem in one night! No cars means no more parking tickets!”, Emanuel proudly stated. (more…)

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By Heals56 

Is Glenn Beck really a socialist? The “Happy Warrior” comes on the air every weekday on both radio and TV to state his cases on smaller government. He makes startling historical reports on progressives, does a fine job in describing the evils done by the state and moves to bring a return of the Constitution and personal responsibility to the American masses. No one would ever consider this man to be a socialist…..until yesterday. (more…)

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Some Good Economic News (Finally)

By Heals56

Each day we are bombarded by shell after shell of bad news about the U.S. Economy. But since I have always been a “glass half full” kind of guy I would like to point out 5 factors in our country that should be looked on with positivity. (more…)

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1. ESPN’s analysts made some pre-free agency signing period predictions in
the NBA.  Using their votes as predicted percentages, here are the results: (more…)

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1. The Obama Administration has unveiled an updated Space Policy.  The
policy reiterates the call for visiting an asteroid by 2025 and Mars by 2030, while cancelling the Constellation program and any hope of returning to the Moon.  The President seems content to turn the Moon over to the Russians, Chinese, India, and the Europeans.  (more…)

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1. Lebron James initial plans are being rumored to include Thursday meetings
with representatives from the Nets and the Knicks in Ohio.  James indicated
that all of the potential suitors would have to throw their plans in the
garbage and start from scratch since he had no intention on taking a
nationwide tour of potential landing spots.  No word yet from any of the other potential teams on when they plan on meeting with James, but you would
have to believe that most would meet with him by next weekend. (more…)

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